The year 2023 has been an eventful one for Caribbean citizenship by investment programs (CIPs). It started out with major changes in St Kitts & Nevis’ and St Lucia’s programs, and then, due to interference from global superpowers such as the US and EU, more structural and regulatory changes would come into play later on in the year. Price decreases, price hikes, and the introduction of mandatory applicant interviews were the main highlights of 2023 when it came to Caribbean CIPs, but there is one factor that has grabbed headlines as well – surging demand.

Context in numbers

Caribbean CIPs have performed admirably in the past few decades, but the past few years have seen them hit new heights. Antigua & Barbuda has averaged an annual growth rate in applications of nearly 51% between 2014 and 2022, while its Compound Average Growth Rate (CAGR) is at an impressive 45.5%, highlighting how high the demand has soared in the past couple of years. St Lucia’s numbers are also stellar, averaging an annual growth rate of 44% and a CAGR of 37%. This massive growth culminates in the gargantuan surge of applications in 2023.

The number of CIP applications received by St Lucia during the first three quarters of 2023 is 52% higher than the total of 2022, which was, in itself, a record year for the St Lucian program. Grenada recently released a statistics pack that backs the storyline of growing interest. The projected revenue of the Grenadian CIP during the first three quarters of 2023 is nearly three times (284%, to be exact) of the revenue achieved in 2022. If the processing efficiency of the Grenadian Citizenship by Investment Unit (CIU) continues at this rate, the Grenadian CIP revenue may be more than the last four years combined. The number of applications to the Grenadian CIP in the first three quarters of 2023 is just 119 applications shy of the total received during both 2021 and 2022, highlighting the massive demand for Caribbean citizenship by investment. St Kitts & Nevis and Dominica do not release any official statistics, but the announcements of the governments during the past few years indicate that demand has been exponentially growing.

The reasons behind the surge

Caribbean CIPs have long been a popular venture for global high-net-worth individuals. The longest-running program, that of St Kitts & Nevis, was introduced back in 1984, and since then, it has become a vital cornerstone of the country’s economy. The same goes for the rest of the Caribbean nations. These programs became so popular that they would regularly contribute above 20% of the government’s overall funds. CIUs have adapted to the growing demand and have streamlined their processes, but 2023 is showing that they may have to expect further growth. But why has there been a recent surge in applications? That question has a complex answer; as various factors have played a role, such as:

Organic growth

CIPs are highly beneficial. They are quick, affordable, and simple programs that provide investors with a straightforward route to enhance their global mobility, hedge against political and economic instability, and provide their families with a robust safeguard. As the trend of individual sovereignty continues to grow in a globalized world, it is inevitable that the demand for second citizenship will increase alongside it. This is exactly what happened with Caribbean CIPs. They became more popular, be it due to word of mouth, branding and marketing, increased awareness from social media, or otherwise. They followed the organic growth path that all successful industries have done before. Does this organic growth explain the massive surge of applications in 2023 on its own? No. But it is a critical factor; as the trend continues to gather momentum, we can expect a higher number of “organic applications” each year compared to the one before it. Hence, it has played a part, but it isn’t the only reason.

The Pandemic

The COVID pandemic played a massive role in increasing awareness regarding global mobility assets such as second citizenship or foreign residency permits. Increased travel restrictions and rigid government decisions made everyone aware that they could suddenly come face to face with unseen obstacles due to circumstances outside of their control. This realization led many to look for solutions, and CIPs provided an optimal answer. Suddenly, niches of investors who would not normally be considered prime CIP applicants, such as US and Western country nationals, were applying for second passports through CIPs. As awareness increased in these new outbound markets, so did demand for Caribbean CIPs. The percentage of US citizen applications to Antigua & Barbuda’s CIP was 2.5% of all applications before 2020. After the pandemic, that percentage grew to 10% of all applications. You also need to consider that the past three years saw an increase in the overall number of applications, highlighting the sudden and high demand for Caribbean CIPs within the US.

Russian – Ukrainian conflict

The Russian-Ukrainian conflict played a massive role in driving up applications during 2023. When the war first started, Russians, Belarusians, and Ukrainians were eligible to apply for Caribbean CIPs. Not wanting to remain under the mercy of just one government, citizens of these nations began sending in their applications. However, as the conflict escalated and the West began enforcing stricter sanctions, especially against Russian nationals, conducting the necessary due diligence became more difficult for CIUs. Antigua & Barbuda, Dominica, St Kitts & Nevis, and St Lucia would all suspend Russian and Belarusian applicants from applying to their CIPs. Grenada didn’t, not at the time, at least. Hence, the massive growth in applications to Grenada’s CIP can be attributed in part to its status as the only CIP accepting applicants from nationalities directly entangled in the conflict. While Grenada would eventually suspend Russian applicants, it was the only one available to them for more than half a year, and this was one of the major drivers of demand for the Grenadian CIP.

No signs of slowing down

While 2023 was an exceptional year in terms of CIP changes and global variables that would affect them, the interest in obtaining citizenship through investment continues to grow. The organic growth in demand for these programs has been increasing exponentially in the past few years and will continue to increase, especially as more global conflicts arise. To know more about Caribbean CIPs and how to apply, contact NTL Trust today to book a comprehensive consultation with one of our experts.